What's Ahead for Real Estate in 2009?

2009 will be a year of recovery and stabilization for the real estate industry. Here are my 15 top predictions for 2009:

1. Mortgage rates will drop, then rise, and finally stabilize
• Rates will be at a historical low in the first part of the year.
• Rates will go up in spring & level off after the first half of the year.

2. Investors will come back into the market in 2009
• The Federal Reserve plans to pump up the housing sector by buying up to $100 billion dollars worth of bonds issued by Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.
• The Fed will also buy ½ trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae.

3. Buyers will jump off the fence and come back into the market
• With fixed rates in the mid-fives -- combined with pricing at 2003 and 2004 levels -- it is an excellent time to buy.

4. Sellers will become creative with alternative ways to add value to their home sale with incentives such as:
• Interest rate buy-downs
• Seller financing & Other incentives

5. Listing Inventory will go down as the market absorbs inventory
• Nationally, listing inventory will begin to go down as inventory is consumed by many markets where new home inventory is on the decline. Builders in 2008 focused on selling existing inventory and did not focus on building new projects so as the year goes on inventory numbers will decrease. Coupled with lower interest rates and higher investor confidence, this consumption of inventory will continue.

6. Market time will decline and remain on the lower end of the spectrum
• Days-on-market numbers will go down in 09 due to a lack of new home inventory coming on the market.

7. Real Estate agents will leave the industry in record numbers

8. Builders will use auctions to sell off inventory; many will leave the business entirely
• Builders will turn to auctions to liquidate remaining properties.
• Builders will leave the industry due to financial pressures from the lack of 2008 sales.
• New construction will virtually grind to a halt as builders are unable to develop new product as a result of excess inventory / poor sales in 2008.

9. New home inventories will reach record low numbers in the fall of 2009
• Many builders stopped buying land in 2008, and will therefore be unable to build in 2009.
• Builders stopped building in 2008 and concentrated on selling standing inventory. As a result, they were not building new inventory. This will lead to an inventory shortage in 2009.
• Existing new home inventory will be absorbed by the fall of 2009.

10. Consumer confidence will improve in the spring of 2009
• Consumer confidence will improve in the spring of 2009, and buyers jump back into the market…carefully.
• Consumers will look to real estate agents for guidance in buying and selling.

11. Appreciation will be small to nonexistent in most markets as the industry stabilizes
• Most markets across the country will see little or no appreciation while the market stabilizes and inventory gets absorbed by the market.
• Some markets will continue to see their markets decline into the second half of 2009 as inventory levels stabilize.

12. The rental market will BOOM IN 2009
• It’s estimated that almost 2 million homes will be foreclosed on in 2009. This will transform many former homeowners into tenants.
• Banks will rent their real estate owned properties rather than sell at a substantial loss.
• Tighter credit criteria will force potential buyers to renew their current leases after they are turned down for a mortgage.
• Consumer fear and an uncertain employment picture will keep would-be, credit- worthy buyers on the sidelines, leading to reduced turnover in rental housing.
• Americans who have realized a loss by recent homeownership will decide that ownership is not worth the risk and trouble. They will sign a rental lease and happily return to rental living.

13. "In demand" homes will become the "safe necessity" of 2009
• Smaller, green-built, and energy efficient homes will be in big demand.
• Home with a good location in relation to work and school will be in demand.
• Homes in the mid-range of price for their market will be in demand as more homebuyers become more frugal.

14. Real estate companies will merge in 2009
• Smaller real estate companies will merge with larger companies to make it through the market downturn.
• Competition in the industry will shrink as the number of companies and the numbers of agents is reduced.

15. Second home markets will see far less activity; many will suffer in 2009
• Second home markets in many markets will suffer due to the financial losses owners of second homes experienced as their stock portfolios, pensions, or other investments devalued and deteriorated.
• Second home markets will suffer due to consumers’ need to relocate assets and financial priorities.

While we will see adjustments in 2009, it’s sure to be a much better year than 2008.

Published by Realty Times: February 12, 2009

Weekly market report

For the week ending January 31, new listings continue at a lower level than
seen last year, clocking in at 1,635—a 15.3 percent drop. Conversely, pending
sales continue to raise sand with 673 recorded for this week's report—25
percent above last year. Basically, this is all welcome news. Having fewer
listings on the market, combined with an increase in pending sales, helps to
reduce the Months Supply of Inventory to 13.5 percent when compared to last
year at this time—down from 8.9 to 7.7 months. This means it will take the
current supply of houses for sale 7.7 months to sell (on average).
The Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale continues to fall, with the
January figure of 89.5 sitting at 1.6 percent less than 2008. It's important to
consider sales prices of foreclosure homes and how they affect this figure.
Our new Housing Affordability Index jumped to 202 in February. This is a new
record and means that the median family income is 202 percent of what is
necessary to qualify for the median-priced home. Again, we must consider how
the sales prices in the lender-mediated market are affecting this figure, but we
can say with some confidence that there are a number of very attractive buying
opportunities in the local housing market.

What would convince home buyers to buy in today’s market:

What is the magic mix that will get buyers motivated. Mortgage rates lower than today’s 5%? smaller down payments? Below market value pricing? Special amenity packages? Or a big tax credit? Strategies to bring buyers back into the market dominated the recent Annual convention of National Association of Home Builders in Las Vegas.

Survey results suggest that a tax credit alone is not sufficient to motivate buyers to sign purchase contracts.. The most effective in convincing them to buy now is: a 30 year loan with a fixed 3% interest rate. The Zero down option would be highly attractive to potential buyers Guarantees by builders that loan applications will be accepted when buyers verify their income and have a fair credit score. Price concessions also are compelling to would-be buyers. Most effective of all: a 10% discount below TRUE market value—in other words, instant equity for the purchase upfront.

Bottom line: Look for builders to offer combination packages of special financing, price concessions, lower down payments and perhaps loan application approval guarantees. Tax credits would continue to get more push on Capitol Hill but financing concessions appear to have more clout with potential home buyers.

Downtown St.Paul: Hot For This Market

Downtown St. Paul managed a 6 percent increase in the median sale price for a home during 2008, making the district a Twin Cities oddity alongside Edina and two sections of Dakota County in posting price gains, compared with the previous year. Overall, the median price in the 13-county metro dropped 13 percent this past year, with declines being posted in the majority of districts defined by Realtors. The new data had St. Paul civic leaders boasting about the joys of downtown living and agents offered a variety of explanations for the uptick, ranging from size of the condos sold to a small number of downtown foreclosure properties.

Nation: National: Long-Term Rates Fall For Eleventh Consecutive Week

Long term interest rates fell again in the week ending January 15th, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Market Mortgage Survey. Rates are the lowest they have been since Freddie Mac begin the PMMS in 1971

LONG-TERM RATES FALL FOR TENTH CONSECUTIVE WEEK SETTING YET ANOTHER NEW LOW

McLean, VA – Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.01 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending January 8, 2009, down from last week when it averaged 5.10 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.87 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started the Primary Mortgage Market Survey in 1971.

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.62 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.83 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.43 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been lower since June 13, 2003, when it averaged 4.60 percent.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.49 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.57 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.63 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 4.95 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.85 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.37 percent.

(Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.)

"Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell for the tenth week to a fourth consecutive record low due in part to the Federal Reserve's recent purchases of mortgage-backed securities issued by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "On November 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve announced that it planned to purchase up to $500 billion of these securities by the end of June of this year. For the sake of comparison, there were roughly $4.7 trillion of such securities backed by home mortgages available as of September 30, 2008.

"Since the end of October 2008, these rates have declined by almost 1 1/2 percentage points, or payment savings of about $184 a month for a $200,000 loan – an additional $11 dollars from last week."

Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Over the years, Freddie Mac has made home possible for one in six homebuyers and more than five million renters.

Nation: 4 Facts About Down Payments In Today's Market

There is some misinformation in the media lately about the required size of a down payment for a mortgage in today's market. According to the National Association of Realtors, here are the facts: There is some misinformation in the media lately about the required size of a down payment for a mortgage in today's market. According to the National Association of Realtors, here are the facts:



An individual may be required to put down 20 percent based on that person's financial situation but that's not a requirement for all buyers.
A borrower who puts down less than 20 percent is required to obtain mortgage insurance.
Even in a declining market, a borrower is required to make at least a 5 or 10 percent down payment.
FHA requires a 3.5 percent down payment by borrowers, so long as they meet a 31 percent housing cost-to-income ratio. In other words, anyone who stays within their budget and who can afford a 3.5 percent down payment (even with famly help) can become a homeowner.