Friday, October 31, 2008

What, a Halloween that is not scaring the markets? Halloween may not be, but October 2008 will go down as the most volatile and scariest month ever in the world wide financial markets and we cannot wait for November to come. Oil in October dropped below $100 a barrel, than $90, than $80, than $70 and now is around $65 a barrel. Gas is now being reported in the Twin Cities as $1.99 a gallon. Dow tumbles to almost 8,000 and now back up over 9,000. What a month. History in the making but we have to be honest, we are glad the month is over.



So what’s gong on in the Markets on Halloween. Nothing scary right now. MBS prices are up +12/32 (FNMA 30-yr 6.0 at 100.10), which is slightly below where PHH priced this morning which was around +16/32nds. The 30-yr fixed FNMA required net yield (60 day) is now at 6.37%, up from 5.84% at the end of September. This morning, MBS markets have recovered some of the losses seen earlier in the week. Today's economic data had little impact. The Core PCE price index rose 2.4% from one year ago, matching expectations, and Personal Income also came in close to the consensus forecast. The Dow is up, but only 10 points. Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment will be released soon, and Bernanke will be speaking this afternoon and that could add one more round a volatility to this October 2008.
Happy Halloween

Monday, October 27, 2008

Minnesota: State Gets Cash Boost To Help With Selling And Rehabbing Of Homes

Three metro counties and the state of Minnesota will receive federal money through a new unit of the Department of Housing and Urban Development that aims to help communities hard hit by the foreclosure crisis. From the $57.8 million federal pot, the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency received $38.8 million, Minneapolis, $5.6 million, St. Paul, $4.3 million, Hennepin county $3.9 million, Dakota County, $2.8 million and Anoka county $2.4 million. Those communities were chosen based on the number and rate of subprime mortgages, delinquencies and defaults. The aid is funneled through HUD's new Neighborhood Stabilization Program and can be used to purchase foreclosed properties for rehab and sale and in some cases demolition. Homes that are sold through the program must be sold at or below the purchase price plus the rehab investment. The money can also be used to offer down-payment and closing cost assistance to buyers who are at or below 120 percent of the area's median income or to create land banks to stabilize neighborhoods and encourage development.

Monday, October 20, 2008

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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Big discounts push increase in September home sales

With the stock market skidding and the credit markets in disarray, Marissa McDonald and Travis Gehling are paying close attention to what's happening in the economy. None of that, however, will deter them from buying a house, McDonald said, as they drove to an inspection on a house they plan to buy in Cottage Grove.

The first-timers said that sellers were offering serious discounts on just about all of the 20 or so houses they looked at during the past couple of months, and they're hoping to get a 7.5 percent discount on the one they plan to buy.

Such discounts and a flood of clearance-priced foreclosures helped drive a 42 percent increase in pending home sales last month compared with a year ago, the third consecutive month of year-over-year increases, according to data released Friday by Twin Cities-area Realtors associations. Whether that translates into a long-term recovery against a backdrop of economic uncertainty remains to be seen.

Among sales that closed in September, the median sale price declined 15.6 percent, to $189,000.

Much of that decline was caused by a steady increase in foreclosures and "short sales" -- sales where lenders agree to a sale for less than what is owed on the mortgage -- that are moving through the market. Almost 42 percent of September pending sales were these lender-mediated transactions, up from 17.5 percent last year at this time, according to the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors.

The distressed sales are putting tremendous downward pressure on sale prices across the board. The median sale price of lender-mediated transactions only was $146,000, 11.5 percent decline over 2007, and even the sale price of traditional homes fell 8.6 percent.

Such declines are an indication that sellers are offering steep discounts. During September, sellers on average received 92.2 percent of their asking price; just two years ago they got 96 percent.

The September spike in pending sales will help the market regain some ground after a very slow start to the year. So far this year, pending sales are now running neck-and-neck with last year.

Although a 42 percent increase sounds impressive, the 4,036 pending sales last month were less than the five-year September average of 4,138. The increase was due in part to a particularly slow September 2007, which was the slowest September in a decade.

Dogged by record numbers of distressed sales, the market is also getting a boost from a slowdown in listing activity. Last month the number of new listings to hit the market was 4.2 percent behind last year at this time and 13.2 percent below 2006. That's a trend that's been underway for most of the last half of this year; so far this year new listings are off 11.2 percent compared with last year.

While sellers are certainly cursing the market and the flood of bargain-priced foreclosures they're competing with, the fundamentals for buyers like Gehling and McDonald who have good credit and cash for a down payment remain strong. Mortgage interest rates have remained relatively stable and near 30-year lows, there are nearly 10 houses on the market for every buyer and the government is offering a $7,500 tax credit for first-time buyers. And that's why the housing affordability index rose to 159, its highest level since the spring of 2003.

With consumer confidence waning but discounts on the rise, the market is becoming increasingly nuanced as segments of the market improve while others decline. In Minneapolis, for example, there was nearly a 40 percent increase in the number of closed sales last month, but nearly a 24 percent decline in the median sale price.

Data were even more extreme in St. Paul, where the number of sales in September rose nearly 44 percent from 202 during 2007 to 290 last month with the median sale price falling 28 percent. The same was true in several suburbs, where there were fewer sales, but many striking examples of huge increases. The number of sales in Richfield, for one, doubled from 26 to 52.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Nation: Pending Homes Sales Increased 7.4% From July To August

The National Association of Realtors® released reports of the highest increase in pending home sales since June of 2007. The group said its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes rose to 93.4 from an upwardly revised July reading of 87. Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/FR had predicted the index would fall to 84.9. The index had sunk to a record of of 83 in March.

Monday, October 06, 2008

Twin Cities: Signs Of Hope On The Housing Front

The Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors said that in the last seven weeks, 1500 more homes were sold than the same period last year and there are eight percent fewer homes on the market than a year ago. The translation: the bulk of homes for sale is beginning to ease. "We're seeing some buyer entry into the marketplace and that's really good news", said Kevin Knudsen, President of the association. However, many homeowners haven't seen evidence of the recovery because most of the movement is on homes priced below $200,000 and many of those foreclosures. The big question is how the events of this past week will affect what appears to be the beginning of a recovery. Some experts predict that home loans will be easier to get it the bailout passes.